Recent Updates
- Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr)
- Malaysia: House Price Index by State (Q1)
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- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 30, 2005
The Conference Board's August index of Consumer Confidence posted a 1.9% m/m increase to 105.6 following a 2.4% July decline that was shallower than initially reported.
Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 101.4 in sympathy with the 7.7% m/m decline in consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of Michigan.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation rose 3.6% m/m to the highest level since 2001. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.2% of survey participants, down slightly m/m, but the 29.8% of participants who thought that business conditions were good was a further improvement on earlier strong readings.
Consumer expectations gained back 0.5% (-3.7% y/y) of a sharp 3.3% decline in July.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | August | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 105.6 | 103.6 | 7.0% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |