Chain store sales inched 0.1% higher last week following a 0.5% rise during the opening week of July, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. So far this month sales are 0.3% higher than the June average which fell 0.4% versus May.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.4% w/w (1.0% y/y) following no change during the week prior.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

Productivity and the Post-1990 U.S. Economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.