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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller July 8, 2005
Non-farm payrolls rose 146,000 last month following an upwardly revised 104,000 rise in May. While the latest increase disappointed Consensus expectations for a rise of 183,000, it continued the pace of job growth of roughly 1.5% in place for the last year.
The unemployment rate from the household survey fell to its lowest level since September 2001. At 5.0%, the rate reflected a 165,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in employment and a 1,000 (1.2% y/y) rise in the labor force. The labor force participation rate dipped slightly to 66.0% reflecting an increase in the number of dropouts from the force after two months of decline. Growth in dropouts rose, as a result, to 1.3% y/y though that remained down from the high of 3.7% late in 2003.
Factory sector payrolls fell 24,000 and suffered the worst month of job loss since January, led lower by an 18,000 (-2.6% y/y) worker decline in the motor vehicle industry. A 12,000 (-1.6% y/y) decline in nondurable goods reflected widespread industry declines but were notable at textile mills (-6.1% y/y) and in apparel (-10.5% y/y).
Private service producing industries payrolls rose a firm 148,000 (1.9% y/y) last month led by professional & business services, up 56,000 (3.0% y/y), and education & health services, up 38,000 (2.3% y/y).
Construction jobs rose 18,000 (4.1% y/y) and total government employment rose a modest 2,000 (0.8% y/y). Federal government jobs fell 7,000 (-0.7% y/y) but local gov't employment rose 7,000 (1.0% y/y).
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) and recovered a revised 0.2% decline in May. The level of hours worked in 2Q rose 2.8% (AR) from 1Q05.
Average hourly earnings rose the same 0.2% as during May and those gains were down from 0.3% during the prior two months.
Employment | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payroll Employment | 146,000 | 104,000 | 1.6% | 1.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
Manufacturing | -24,000 | -6,000 | -0.5% | -1.2% | -4.9% | -7.2% |
Average Weekly Hours | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.8 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
Unemployment Rate | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% |