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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller June 29, 2005
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that total mortgage applications fell another 1.1% last week following the 11.3% decline during the week prior. As a result of increases earlier in the month, applications in June grew 9.9% versus the May average which rose 6.5% versus April.
Purchase applications slipped 0.4% adding to the 9.4% w/w drop during the prior week. In June purchase applications rose 1.3% from May which rose 3.1% from April. During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance fell 1.8% w/w but in June were 21.2% versus May.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell sharply to 5.71%, down from the 5.92% averaged during May. It was the lowest rate since March 2004. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell sharply to 5.33%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 06/24/05 | 06/17/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 778.4 | 786.8 | 35.4% | 735.1 | 1,067.9 | 799.7 |
Purchase | 477.4 | 479.4 | 9.6% | 454.5 | 395.1 | 354.7 |
Refinancing | 2,529.2 | 2,575.0 | 82.4% | 2,366.8 | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 |