Recent Updates
- Sweden: Valueguard-KTH HOX House Prices (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Q3), Turnover Index (Mar)
- Philippines: International Reserves (Apr)
- Japan: Japan: Machinery Orders (Mar), Housing Credit, Loans for Equipment Funds (Q1), International Trade (Apr-Pelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley June 14, 2005
May Inflation rates in four European countries--France, Finland, Spain and the U.K. were released today. The consumer price index in the U.K. rose 1.9% continuing at the seven year high rate reached in March. In each of the Euro Zone countries the rate of inflation declined. In France from 1.9% in April to 1.6% in May, in Spain from 3.5% to 3.0% and in Finland from 1.2$ to 0.6%.
The contrast between inflation rates in the U.K. and in the Euro Zone as a whole is shown in the first chart. We have used the Flash Estimate series for the Euro Zone since it contains data for May while the overall index does not. The Flash Estimate series is a fairly good proxy for the actual series. The correlation between the two series is .86. (The actual May data for the overall index will be available on Thursday of this week.) In spite of its higher growth rate, the U. K. has had a lower inflation rate than the Euro Zone, but now the U. K. rate appears to be increasing while that in the Euro Zone is declining.
The rate of inflation within the Euro Zone has varied widely. Two of the countries reporting data today--Finland and Spain--represent two extremes and different trends in the rate of inflation as shown in the second chart. The trend in the relatively high rate of inflation in Spain appears to be stabilizing or decelerating, while the trend in the low rate of inflation in Finland shows some signs of increasing.
Year over Year Change in CPI | May 05 | Apr 05 | Mar 04 | Feb 05 | Jan 05 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Euro Zone Flash Estimate | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.10 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Euro Zone Overall Index | n.a. | 2.08 | 2.09 | 2.10 | 1.93 | 2.14 | 2.07 | 2.25 |
United Kingdom | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.90 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.27 |
France | 1.63 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 1.46 | 2.13 | 2.14 | 1.88 |
Spain | 2.99 | 3.46 | 3.47 | 3.26 | 3.17 | 3.05 | 3.03 | 3.53 |
Finland | 0.62 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.14 | 1.30 | 2.01 |