Recent Updates
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK (May)
- Sudan: Trade (Mar)
- South Africa: Leading Indicators (Mar)
- Hungary: Employment of Fostered Workers (Mar)
- Denmark: Central Government Finance (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone May 25, 2005
GDP in Spain grew 0.9% in Q1, the same as in Q4, according to the quarterly data released this morning by the National Statistics Institute. Boosts to the quarter's performance came from government consumption, up 2.6%, and a drop in imports of 1.6%. Household consumption grew 0.6%, slower than in Q4, and capital formation also expanded more slowly. Exports decreased 1.7%, their second successive decline, pulling them down 2.5% compared to a year ago. However, an accompanying decrease in imports stabilized the real net export balance with the Q4 amount.
In today's report, Spain has switched to chain-linking for calculating quarterly real growth and inflation; the reference year for these calculations is 2000. The data previously used fixed 1995 weights. [Some annual data on the new basis were reported last week.] As seen in the graph and in the table below, growth is consistently higher in the new figures. In 2002 and 2003 this resulted from stronger gains in fixed investment, but through the last year or so, household consumption has been much more vigorous than under the former calculation scheme.
In the US experience, chain-weighting has a different impact: it tends to reduce total growth and, in particular, that of investment expenditures. It dilutes the effect of heavier buying of equipment, for which prices are falling. But in Spain, the reported volume of investment spending has been raised, perhaps because of the sizable role of construction in the Spanish economy. Construction is a considerably larger share of nominal GDP, 16.7% in Q1, than in the US, 10.2%. Construction prices have increased relative to total GDP, so that item has generally benefited from the chain-weighting process. Its greater weight in turn gives more lift to the total chain-weighted GDP result.
Q1 2005 | Q4 2004 | Q3 2004 | Year/ Year | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP - 2000 Prices | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
Memo: GDP - 1995 Prices | -- | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | |
Household Consumption | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation | 0.9 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
Exports | -1.7 | -0.8 | 1.4 | -2.5 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
Imports | -1.6 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.8 |