Recent Updates
- Thailand: Tourism Statistics (Apr)
- France: INSEE Monthly Household Survey (May)
- Japan: Kansai Airports Statistics (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey (May)
- Euro area: ACEA Commercial Vehicle Registrations (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 12, 2005
For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week's gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest level was 4.3% above the April average. Consensus expectations had been for 329,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 324,000 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 and the prior week's gain was revised down slightly.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0% for the third consecutive weeks.
Self-employed immigrants: An analysis of recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/07/05 | 04/30/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 340 | 336 | 1.2% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,598 | -12.6% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |