Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2005
The University of Michigan's reading of consumer sentiment for all of April fell 5.3% from March to 87.7. The decline contrasted to Consensus expectations for a slightly firmer reading of 89.0.
Sentiment has fallen in each of the last four months and is off 15.5% from the January '04 peak. During the last ten years there has been a 75% (inverse) correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate.
Consumer expectations added to the decline earlier in the month and dropped 7.0%, down for the fourth straight month. The expected change in real family income fell 12.2% to the lowest level since 1991. More unemployment was expected by the highest percentage since late 2003 and price inflation was expected to quicken.
The reading of current economic conditions fell 3.3%, a slight improvement from the mid-month reading.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 87.7 | 92.6 | -6.9% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 104.4 | 108.0 | -0.6% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Consumer Expectations | 77.0 | 82.8 | -11.8% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |