Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley April 25, 2005
The IFO indexes of business conditions and expectations in Germany declined further in April as heralded by the ZEW indicator of market sentiment, released last week.
The respondents to thesurvey have become more pessimistic regarding their expectations than regarding their current conditions since April of 2004 as shown in the first chart where the year-to-year changes in expectations and current conditions are plotted.
Other confidence measures released recently include Belgium's BNB (Banque Nationale de Belgique) indicators of business and consumer confidence, both of which declined in April. The only bit of optimism, surprisingly, was shown in Italy's ISEA (Instituto Nationale de Statistica) index of consumer confidence which increased by 0.58% from March and 3.05% from April, 2004. The year-to-year changes in this measure are shown in the second chart together with the year-to-year changes in Belgium's measure of consumer confidence. Italy's consumers have, so far this year, shown positive changes from the corresponding months of 2004 while Belgium consumers have become negative.
Euro-Zone countries: | Apr 05 | Mar 05 | Apr 04 | M/M % or Dif |
Y/Y % or Dif |
2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IFO Index (2000=100) Germany | ||||||||
Business Climate | 93.3 | 94.0 | 96.4 | -0.74 | -3.22 | 95.7 | 91.7 | 89.4 |
Business Conditions | 93.1 | 93.3 | 95.0 | -0.21 | -2.00 | 94.0 | 88.4 | 85.3 |
Business Expectations | 93.6 | 94.6 | 97.8 | -1.06 | -4.29 | 97.4 | 95.1 | 93.8 |
BNB % Balance Belgium | ||||||||
Business Confidence | -11.6 | -8.0 | -0.6 | -3.6 | -12.2 | 2.3 | 12.9 | 7.9 |
Consumer Confidence | -5 | -2 | -4 | -3 | -1 | -4 | -11 | -2 |
ISEA (1980=100) Italy | ||||||||
Consumer Confidence | 104.8 | 104.2 | 101.7 | 0.58 | 3.05 | 100.4 | 106.8 | 115.8 |