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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 12, 2005
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in February surged to another record of $61.0B and exceeded Consensus expectations for a $59.0B deficit. January's figure was little revised.
Total exports were unchanged for the second consecutive month. Goods exports were about flat m/m (9.4% y/y) as a 2.7% m/m gain in industrial supplies and a 3.2% (16.6% y/y) increase in non-auto consumer goods offset declines elsewhere. Capital goods exports fell by 1.3% (+3.3% y/y) for the second consecutive m/m decline and "other" exports fell 1.6% (+1.5% y/y).
Exports of advanced technology products fell for the third month in the last four (-7.2% y/y).
Services exports were about unchanged for the second month (7.1% y/y) though passenger fares (+9.4% y/y) and spending on travel (+5.2% y/y) both fell.
Imports of petroleum imports jumped 10.3% (+32.9% y/y) and lifted total imports by 1.6%. The average price of crude oil jumped to $36.85 per bbl. (+26.3% y/y) and imports of non-petroleum goods rose 0.6% (+16.3% y/y). Capital goods imports fell 2.5 (+14.1% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods imports rose 2.0% (21.0% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China improved m/m in February to $13.9B ($162.0B in 2004) though imports are up nearly 50% y/y). The US trade deficit with Japan deepened to $6.9B ($75.2B in 2004) and the trade deficit with the Asian NICs halved m/m to $1.1B ($21.9B in 2004). The US trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $8.5B ($110.0B in 2004) on a 7.5% y/y gain in imports.
Foreign Trade | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trade Deficit | $61.0B | $58.5B | $45.9B (2/04) | $617.1B | $496.5B | $421.7B |
Exports - Goods & Services | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 4.6% | -3.1% |
Imports - Goods & Services | 1.6% | 1.8% | 16.8% | 16.3% | 8.5% | 2.1% |