Recent Updates
- UK: Average Precipitation, Motor Vehicle Production (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2005
US real GDP growth in 4Q04 was unrevised at 3.8% (AR). The Consensus expectation had been for a slight upward revision to 4.0% growth.
Reported for the first time, total U.S. operating corporate profits surged 13.5% (12.4% y/y) and the gain was held back by no change in profits earned abroad. Domestic profits grew 16.2% (18.3% y/y) and reflected a 30.1% rebound in financial sector profits which were depressed by hurricanes in 3Q.
Profits earned in the nonfinancial corporate sector grew 10.3% (24.2% y/y), the strongest gain since 2Q03 and were aided by continued profit margin expansion. Labor costs per unit of output fell for the first time in over a year as productivity remained strong. Non-labor costs continued the decline in place for nearly three years. Pricing power improved and real gross value added (output) grew a strong 1.6% (5.3% y/y).
Domestic demand growth was unrevised at 4.5% as growth in business fixed investment in equipment & software held firm at 18.4% (14.5% y/y). Consumer spending growth also held solid at 4.2% (3.8% y/y). Less computers real GDP grew 3.3% (3.8% y/y).
Price inflation was revised up slightly to 2.3%. The price index for domestic demand was revised higher to 2.9% (2.9% y/y) and continued to reflect a strong 5.3% (4.8% y/y) rise at the state & local government level.
Perspectives on Monetary Policy and Central Banking from New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy F. Geithner can be found here.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 4Q '04 (Final) | 4Q '04 (Prelim. | 3Q '04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Inventory Effect | 0.5% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
Final Sales | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
Trade Effect | -1.4% | -1.4% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
Chained GDP Price Index | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% |