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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Louise Curley March 21, 2005
The European Union Finance Ministers agreed to loosen the terms of the Growth and Stability Pact that was designed to ensure fiscal discipline among the member countries. The pact has virtually been suspended since November, 2003 when France and Germany failed to be censured for their failure to adhere to the letter of the law. With Italy now added to France and Germany having deficits above 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the need for a review of the criteria of the Growth and Stability Pact became more pressing.
Under the original terms of the Pact, countries having budget deficits in excess of 3% of GDP in two successive years were subject to sanctions and fines unless they experienced a 2% decline in growth. Now, while the 3% limit is maintained, countries may subtract certain expenditure from the calculation of the deficit. Germany, for example, may deduct the costs of reunification and France has been allowed to deduct certain military and research expenditures. Moreover, countries with excessive deficits may take two years to get back under the limit, a period that is renewable for two more years. To mitigate problems for some of the potential new members, the finance ministers agreed to give a five year reprieve to those countries reforming their pension schemes. It is expected that these changes will be ratified at the Brussels summit on March 22-23. While these changes will benefit the big spenders, they are not likely to do much for Greece. Greece will need fundamental restructuring if it is to remain in the Euro zone.
Data on the deficits and surpluses as a percentage of GDP of the European Union countries are available on an annual basis in Haver's Eurostat data base. Data for the Euro zone countries are shown in the table below and the data for France and Germany are shown in the attached chart.
Deficit (-)/Surplus (+) %of GDP | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria | -1.3 | -1.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
Belgium | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Finland | 2.1 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 7.1 |
France | -3.7 | -4.3 | -3.2 | -1.3 | -1.4 |
Germany | -3.7 | -3.1 | -3.7 | -2.8 | 1.3 |
Greece | -6.1 | -5.2 | -4.1 | -3.6 | -4.1 |
Ireland | 1.3 | 0.2 | -1.4 | 0.9 | 4.4 |
Italy | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -0.6 |
Luxembourg | -1.1 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
Netherlands | -2.5 | -3.2 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 2.2 |
Portugal | n.a. | -2.8 | -2.7 | -4.4 | -2.8 |
Spain | -0.3 | 0.2 | -1.3 | -1.5 | 0.9 |