Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 16, 2005
The US current account deficit deepened in 4Q04 to a record $187.9B. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $183.0B. The figure pulled the full year deficit to $665.9B, 5.7% of GDP.
The deficit in merchandise trade deteriorated to $183.5B from a revised $167.0B in 3Q. Import growth of 5.4% (20.2% y/y) easily surpassed the strength of exports which grew 1.7% (11.6% y/y).
The surplus on services improved slightly to $12.5B from $11.2B in 3Q. The annual surplus of $48.4B in services trade was, however, barely half the peak in 1997 of $89.9B. Exports of services grew 2.6% in 4Q (7.2% y/y and imports rose 1.2% (10.9% y/y).
From the capital account, US foreign direct investment abroad surged to $101.3B, nearly double the 4Q03 level, and foreign direct investment in the US rose 1.3% to $36.3B, more than triple the 4Q03 level. The deficit of $65B pulled the full year deficit to $133B, about the same as during 2003.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben S. Bernanke's speech titled The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit can be found here.
US Int'l Balance of Payments | 4Q '04 | 3Q '04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Deficit | $187.9B | $165.9B | $127.0B | $665.9B | $530.7B | $473.9B |
Goods/Services/Income Deficit | $168.9B | $151.0B | $109.3B | $593.0B | $463.2B | $414.6B |
Exports | 4.6% | 2.7% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 5.8% | -3.9% |
Imports | 6.6% | 2.8% | 23.3% | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
Unilateral Transfers Deficit | $19.0B | $14.9B | $17.6B | $72.9B | $67.4B | $59.4B |