Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 14, 2005
The Leading Index of the Big 7 OECD economies rose 0.2% in January for the third consecutive month. The steady rise lifted six month growth in the index to its best since September.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD and the change in the leading index.
The leading index for the US economy provided the lift to the OECD composite as it increased 0.6% in January for the third consecutive monthly rise following three down months. Six month growth improved to 1.9% from a low of 0.1% in October due to higher share prices, consumer sentiment and construction which offset a tighter yield curve.The leaders for Japan stuttered with no change in January but six month at 1.3% remained up from zero in September due to gains in share prices and construction that offset a tighter yield curve.
Growth in the leaders for the UK economy went even more negative as higher short term interest rates and poorer export prospects offset increases in consumer confidence and share prices.The Canadian leaders rose for the first month following seven consecutive months of decline and growth remained a negative 2.2%.
A second 0.1% monthly decline in the leaders for the European Union (15 countries) pulled the six month growth rate to 0.9%, it's weakest since mid-2003. Growth in the leaders for Germany dropped to 1.5%, down from 8.6% in December 2003, due to a negative yield curve, a poor business climate and a negative orders inflow. The French leaders' also steadily deteriorated and growth went slightly negative versus the high of 8.4% early in 2004 due to a tighter yield curve and few job vacancies The leaders' in Italy fell 0.2% for the second month and six month growth fell to -0.5% due to higher short term interest rates, negative consumer confidence and deteriorating terms of trade.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found here.
This 2003 report from the US Federal Reserve Board gives An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD Countries. 
| OECD | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Leading Index | 102.54 | 102.32 | 1.0% | 101.97 | 97.50 | 96.34 |
| 6 Month Growth Rate | 1.0% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
