The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence slipped in February to 104.0 from an upwardly revised January level of 105.1. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 103.3.

The index of consumer expectations fell for the second consecutive month (+4.1% y/y). The present situation index added another 3.8% to strong gains in the prior three months (+39.7% y/y).

During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.

Perceptions of the job market improved further. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 22.6% of survey participants, the lowest percentage since May 2002.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.