Recent Updates
- France: INSEE Monthly Household Survey (May)
- Japan: Kansai Airports Statistics (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey (May)
- Euro area: ACEA Commercial Vehicle Registrations (Apr)
- Lithuania: Job Vacancies (Q1)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 24, 2022
• Sales fall to lowest level in two years.
• Decline spreads throughout the country.
• Median sales price continues to increase.
The new home sales market is unraveling. New single-family home sales during April fell 16.6% (-26.9% y/y) to 591,000 units (SAAR). It was the lowest level of sales since the end of the recession two years earlier. This fourth consecutive monthly decline in sales occurred from 709,000 units in March, revised from 763,000. Earlier figures also were revised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 750,000 sales in April. The data is generated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Sales declined last month across the country. Sales in the South weakened 19.8% (-36.6% y/y) to 307,000, the lowest level since December 2016. Sales in the Midwest dropped 15.1% (-25.5% y/y) to 73,000, a five-month low. Sales in the West fell 13.8% (-12.4% y/y) to 163,000, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Sales in the Northeast weakened 5.9% (+17.1% y/y) to 48,000 following two consecutive monthly increases.
The median price of a new home in April strengthened 3.6% (NSA, 19.6% y/y) to a record $450,600 following a 1.8% March increase. The average sales price of a new home increased 9.1% (31.2% y/y) to a record $570,300. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The decline in sales left the market for new homes flooded in April. The number of unsold new homes jumped 8.3% (40.1% y/y) to 444,000, the most since May 2008.
The seasonally adjusted supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.0 months in April, up from 5.6 months in December. The record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market fell to 2.8. The record low was 2.5 months in October of last year. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.