Recent Updates
- South Africa: Wholesale Sales, Export & Import Indexes (Mar)
- Iceland: HICP (Apr)
- Sweden: Valueguard-KTH HOX House Prices (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Q3), Turnover Index (Mar)
- Philippines: International Reserves (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 28, 2004
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence surged nearly ten points to 102.3 in December. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 94.0. The latest was the highest Confidence reading since July.
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 26.4% of survey participants, down from levels near 28% during the prior three months. Jobs were viewed as plentiful by 19.4% of survey participants, the highest since July.
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The present situation index jumped 10.0% to 105.9 (+39.3% y/y). The index of consumer expectations also rose a strong 10.8% to 99.9 (-7.0% y/y), the highest level since July.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 102.3 | 92.6 | 7.9% | 96.0 | 79.8 | 96.6 |