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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Down: Above Trend Growth Still Suggested
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2004

The November National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to 0.12 from a downwardly revised 0.49 the prior month. The figure continues to suggest that the U.S. economy is expanding.

The decline lowered slightly the three-month moving average of the CFNAI to 0.13, the lowest level in a year. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The latest CFNAI report is available here.

The future was the topic at this Economic Outlook Symposium.

Chicago Fed Nov Oct Nov '03 2003 2002 2001
CFNAI 0.12 0.49 0.85 -0.11 -0.40 -1.19
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