Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
- South Africa: PPI (Apr) Government Debt (Apr-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2004
The University of Michigan's mid-month reading of consumer sentiment rebounded in December to 95.7, up 3.1% from November. Consensus expectations had expected 93.5.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
Consumer expectations index added 4.2% m/m to the 1.7% gain in November and the current economic conditions index rose 1.5% for the third consecutive monthly increase.
Consumer sentiment amongst families earning more than $50,000 per year fell slightly m/m but rose 2.0% y/y. Sentiment amongst families earning less than $50,000 per year surged 9.5% m/m (5.3% y/y.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
"Consumer Sentiment and the Media" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
In advance of next week's FOMC meeting and also from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is this reminiscence of events 25 years ago titled "October 6, 1979" as well as "Gauging the Market's Expectations about Monetary Policy."
University of Michigan | Mid-Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 95.7 | 92.8 | 3.3% | 87.6 | 89.6 | 89.2 |
Current Conditions | 106.3 | 104.7 | 9.6% | 97.2 | 97.5 | 100.1 |
Consumer Expectations | 88.8 | 85.2 | -1.1% | 81.4 | 84.6 | 82.3 |