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- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 2, 2004
Factory orders rose 0.5% last month following an upwardly revised unchanged reading for September. The recovery was due to a 2.4% gain in nondurable orders (which equal shipments) that primarily reflected an 8.3% jump in shipments from petroleum refineries.
Durable goods orders fell 1.1%, revised from the advance report of a 0.4% drop. The advance report of a 3.3% decline in nondefense capital goods orders was revised to show a 3.9% decline and less aircraft, the decline was revised to -4.2% from -3.6%.
Total shipments out of the US manufacturing sector reversed the prior month's decline with a 1.2% surge, but less petroleum & coal shipments recovered just half of the prior months 1.2% drop (+7.7% y/y). Shipments of computers & electronic products rose 2.8% (+9.4% y/y) after the 2.7% September decline but electrical equipment shipments only gained back 0.4% (4.6% y/y) of a 3.0% September skid.
Factory inventory accumulation picked up to 0.5% following a downwardly revised 0.1% September up tick, however the inventory to sales ratio in the factory sector scaled back to 1.24 due to the surge in shipments. Inventories of consumer durables fell 0.1% (+9.7% y/y) after two months of strong accumulation.
Unfilled orders rose 0.5% and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments for durables added to the sharp gain in September. Supply bottlenecks also are indicated by the ISM's index of vendor delivery speed.
Factory Survey (NAICS) | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inventories | 0.5% | 0.1% | 5.9% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
New Orders | 0.5% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 3.7% | -1.9% | -6.7% |
Shipments | 1.2% | -1.1% | 10.6% | 2.6% | -2.0% | -5.4% |
Unfilled Orders | 0.5% | 0.9% | 8.5% | 4.2% | -6.1% | -5.9% |