Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 1, 2004
The Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Institute of Supply Management rose a point last month to 57.8 versus Consensus expectations for little change at 57.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
The Composite Index reflected gains in the new orders (61.5), employment (57.6) and inventory (50.7) components.
The separate index of export orders fell and reversed nearly half of the prior month's rise.
The prices paid index fell, and at 74.0 was well off the year's high of 88.0.
"Using Manufacturing Surveys to Access Economic Conditions" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | Nov | Oct | Nov '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 57.8 | 56.8 | 61.3 | 53.3 | 52.4 | 43.9 |
| New Orders Index | 61.5 | 58.3 | 71.4 | 58.1 | 56.6 | 46.1 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 74.0 | 78.5 | 64.0 | 59.6 | 57.6 | 42.9 |
