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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller November 24, 2004
Mortgage applications plunged 5.7% last week for the second sharp w/w decline this month, but the average level of activity so far in November still was up 3.1% from October according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Purchase applications again fell sharply by 3.5%. Though the November average was up versus October, the latest weekly level was the lowest in the last four. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance skid 8.3% w/w leaving the November average up 2.4% versus October.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 5.92%. It averaged 5.92% in October. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.39%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 11/19/04 | 11/12/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 715.0 | 758.3 | -7.8% | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
Purchase | 463.3 | 480.3 | 0.7% | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
Refinancing | 2,179.3 | 2,375.4 | -16.6% | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |