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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 5, 2004
Nonfarm payrolls grew 337,000 last month following upwardly revised gains of 139,000 and 198,000 during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 job rise in October.
Construction sector jobs grew 71,000 (3.9% y/y).
Hiring in private service producing industries also was quite strong, up 231,000 (1.8% y/y) following an upwardly revised September increase of 99,000. Hiring in professional & business services rose 97,000 (3.7% y/y) with temporary help services jobs up 47,600 (11.5% y/y). Jobs in the financial sector rose another 17,000 m/m (1.3% y/y) and education & health services jobs rose 62,000 (2.2% y/y). Government payrolls grew 41,000 (0.7% y/y).
Factory sector payrolls fell for the second consecutive month, down 5,000 (+0.3% y/y). Weakness was broad based across industries.
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in September. The index began the fourth quarter 2.0% (AR) above the prior quarter after 3.1% growth in 3Q.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in September.
The unemployment rate from the separate household survey rose to 5.5% as a 298,000 (1.2% y/y) gain in employment lagged labor force growth of 367,000 (0.7% y/y). The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 65.9%.
Employment | Oct | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payroll Employment | 337,000 | 139,000 | 198,000 | 1.6% | -0.3% | -1.1% | 0.0% |
Reported last month | 96,000 | 128,000 | 1.3% | ||||
Manufacturing | -5,000 | -14,000 | 14,000 | 0.3% | -4.8% | -7.2% | -4.8% |
Average Weekly Hours | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.8 | 34.0 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
Unemployment Rate | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% |