Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller October 21, 2004
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 25,000 last week following a revised gain of 16,000 the week prior. The decline to 329,000 was to the lowest level in over a month and compared to the Consensus expectation for 345,000 claims.
The latest figure is for the October survey period for nonfarm payrolls and initial claims fell 22,000 (6.3%) from the September period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 348,250 (-11.1% y/y).
Ongoing claims for unemployment insurance fell 8,000 following a 51,000 decline the prior week that was revised from -11,000.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% versus the downwardly revised level of the prior week.
"Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans?" by Nobel Prize winner Edward C. Prescott can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/16/04 | 10/09/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 329 | 354 | -15.9% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,798 | -19.7% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |