Recent Updates
- Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 20, 2004
Mortgage applications rebounded last week from the prior period's slump, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The 7.9% w/w rise did not, however, recoup all of the prior week's 9.2% fall and so far in October applications are just 0.2% higher than the September average.
Purchase applications rose 5.8% following two weeks of sharp decline. So far in October purchase apps are 2.6% below the September average. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance rebounded 10.6% w/w and for the month are 3.9% ahead of September.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage slipped to 5.90% from 5.95% the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell to 5.34%.
"The Nationalization of Housing Finance" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Fed Chairman Greenspan's comments made yesterday on the mortgage market and consumer debt can be found here.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 10/15/04 | 10/08/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 709.9 | 658.2 | 8.7% | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
Purchase | 461.4 | 436.3 | 19.5% | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
Refinancing | 2,155.2 | 1,949.2 | -2.2% | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |