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- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 15, 2004
In September the finished goods PPI rose 0.1% and matched Consensus expectations. The gain followed slight decline in two of the prior three months. Less food & energy prices were a bit stronger, up 0.3%, versus expectations for a 0.2% rise.
"Core" finished consumer goods prices jumped 0.4% (2.0% y/y) on the strength of higher durable & nondurable goods prices.
Finished capital goods prices also registered a firm 0.4% (1.8% y/y) gain reflecting strength in prices of textile machinery as well as ships.
Finished energy prices fell 0.9% (9.1% y/y). Residential gas prices dropped a not seasonally adjusted 2.4% (5.7% y/y) but they have recovered in October.Gasoline prices rose a not seasonally adjusted 1.9% m/m (+18.9% y/y).
Crude prices less food & energy reversed some of the prior month's strength with a 2.5% decline. During the last thirty years "core" crude prices have been a fair indicator of activity in the industrial sector. There has been a 51% correlation between the six month change in core crude prices and the change in factory sector industrial production. Overall crude prices fell 4.2%, dragged lower by the 6.6% decline in crude energy costs.
Intermediate goods prices ticked just 0.1% higher but core intermediate prices added 0.7% to the 1.0% August jump. Industrial chemical prices continued strong.
| Producer Price Index | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.1% | -0.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | -1.3% | 2.0% |
| Core | 0.3% | -0.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.1% | 1.0% | 8.3% | 4.7% | -1.5% | 0.4% |
| Core | 0.7% | 1.0% | 7.8% | 2.0% | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| Crude Goods | -4.2% | -0.7% | 14.2% | 25.1% | -10.6% | 0.3% |
| Core | -2.5% | 4.5% | 25.4% | 12.4% | 3.8% | -10.0% |
