Recent Updates
- Sweden: Valueguard-KTH HOX House Prices (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Q3), Turnover Index (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 14, 2004
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 last week to 352,000 after a 35,000 decline the prior week that was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for 345,000 claims.
The increase may have reflected aberrant seasonal adjustment factors.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose to 353,000 (-9.7% y/y). During the last ten years there has been an 81% (negative) correlation between the monthly average of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Ongoing claims for unemployment insurance continued lower by 11,000 following a decline the prior week that was revised deeper to 9,000.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3% where it has hovered since the end of April.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/09/04 | 10/02/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 352 | 337 | -9.0% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,845 | -20.4% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |