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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 5, 2004
The September Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 56.7 from 58.2 in August, reported the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a moderate gain to 59.0.
Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 55% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in GDP services plus construction.
The employment sub index continued to rise, adding 2.1 points to the 2.5 point gain in August. Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
The new orders index was about unchanged at 58.5 versus 58.6 in August.
The seasonally adjusted prices index fell to 67.1 versus 70.0 in August.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey | Sep | Aug | Sep '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Activity Index | 56.7 | 58.2 | 61.7 | 58.1 | 55.1 | 48.9 |
Prices Index | 67.1 | 70.0 | 58.9 | 56.7 | 53.9 | 51.5 |