The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for September recovered just over half of the prior month's decline with a 4.0 point gain to 61.3. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser rise to 57.5.

During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 85% during the last five years.

The new orders index jumped to 68.7, recovering all of the 10.7 drop in August. The employment index at 53.9, added 2.8 points to the 5.5 rise. During the last twenty years there has been an 81% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.

The index of prices paid remained quite firm at 86.4. During the last ten years there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago price index and the y/y change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.