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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone September 9, 2004
Led by a surge in capital goods output, industrial production in Brazil has recovered vigorously over the past several months. In July, although the gain in capital goods was interrupted, the overall index rose 0.5%, its fifth consecutive increase. From October 2002 through June 2003, Brazil's industry shrank by 8.0%, but since that trough, output is up 12.6%.
Brazil has a large, diverse economy. Its GDP last year was $497 billion, second only to Mexico ($626 billion) in the Latin American region. By comparison, Argentina's GDP was $130 billion in 2003 and that of Chile, $72 billion. The diversity shows in its industry, where the recent growth in production has been shared among such varied sectors as motor vehicles, metal products, minerals, rubber products, paper products and textiles.
The recent rise in capital goods is attributed mainly to "industrial transportation equipment", that is, trucks and buses. Output of automobiles and parts has also increased. Less vibrant sectors have included consumer nondurables, as seen in the table below, particularly processed food products. Petroleum refining has been falling steeply.
Brazil: Industrial Production | July 2004 | June 2004 | May 2004 | Year Ago | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 9.6 | -0.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
Capital Goods | -1.1 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 23.9 | 2.2 | -5.8 | 13.5 |
Intermediate Goods | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 4.2 | -0.1 |
Consumer Durables | 1.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 27.3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | -0.6 |
Semi-Durables & Nondurables | -1.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3.2 | -4.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 |