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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Estimates Updated
by Tom Moeller September 8, 2004

The Congressional Budget Office Updated its US budget outlook. The current deficit estimates of $422 for FY04 and $348B for FY05 are below the $477B and $363B estimated six months ago due to improved economic & technical assumptions.

The ten year deficit outlook, however, deteriorated due to raised spending estimates (mostly military & Medicare) which more than offset raised estimates of revenues.

"The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update" from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.

For the first ten months of FY04 the deficit of $395.8 was 22.2% larger than last year. Budget deficits raised the growth in outstanding liabilities of the Federal government through 1Q04 to 12.7% versus 8.0% growth in nonfederal liabilities.

Growth in net receipts for the first ten months of FY04 improved to 4.0% versus a 3.9% decline during the first ten months of FY03. Individual tax receipts were down 0.3% versus a 6.9% decline in the first ten months of FY03. Corporate tax receipts for the fiscal year-to-date were up 45.0% ($145.3B) versus last fiscal YTD.

Growth in Federal net expenditures was about stable at 7.2% versus the first ten months of last fiscal year. Defense expenditures grew 14.8% versus 15.9% last year. Growth in Medicare outlays was 8.6% versus 8.3%. Interest expense grew 3.7% versus a 10.0% decline during last year's first ten months.

US Government Finance July June July '03 FY2003 FY2002 FY2001
Budget Balance $-69.2B $19.1B $-54.2B $-374.2B $-157.8B $127.3B
  Revenues $134.4B $214.4B 8.8% -3.8% -6.9% -1.7%
  Outlays $203.6B $195.2B 14.5% 7.2% 7.9% 4.2%
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