Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 30, 2004
Personal income grew much less than expected last month. The 0.1% July gain was the weakest in nearly two years, followed a slim 0.2% rise in June and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.5% increase.
A 0.5% decline (+6.6% y/y) in proprietors' income was the source of much of last month's disappointment and that was driven by a 5.4% drop in farmers' income. Wages & salaries rebounded 0.4% (+4.4% y/y) from the slight decline in June. The rebound was paced by a 0.6% (2.7% y/y) increase in manufacturing wages.
Personal disposable income rose a slight 0.1% (4.3% y/y). After accounting for a 2.4% y/y rise in prices, real disposable income rose a much reduced 1.8% y/y.
Consumer spending jumped 0.8% following an upwardly revised 0.2% June decline. Higher light vehicle sales pulled durables up 4.1%. Non-durable goods sales rose a slight 0.2%, held back by lower gasoline prices, and services spending rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y).
The PCE chain price index fell slightly. Prices less food & energy also were weak, unchanged m/m (1.5% y/y) due to another decline in durables prices (-0.4% m/m, -1.9% y/y). Services prices rose a moderate 0.2% (2.5% y/y). "A Crude Crude Oil Calculation" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
The savings rate fell to 0.6% and prior months' figures were revised down.
Disposition of Personal Income | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.1% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.5% |
Personal Consumption | 0.8% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
Savings Rate | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
PCE Chain Price Index | -0.0% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% |