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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Up Through August
by Tom Moeller August 27, 2004

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for August rose to 95.9 from the mid-month reading of 94.0. That still was lower than 96.7 in July. Consensus expectations had been for 94.0.

During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.

The expectations sub-index improved to 88.2 versus the mid-month read of 84.7. The index of current economic conditions eased slightly to 107.9 from 108.4 mid-month.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan Aug July Y/Y 2003 2002 2001
Consumer Sentiment 95.9 96.7 5.3% 87.6 89.6 89.2
   Current Conditions 107.9 105.2 8.7% 97.2 97.5 100.1
   Consumer Expectations 88.2 91.2 2.7% 81.4 84.6 82.3
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