Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 25, 2004
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 6.3% last week but during the prior period applications were up 11.9% due to a surge in refinancings.
Purchase applications fell 5.0% last week and so far this month are 2.4% below July.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance mortgages slipped 8.0% following the prior week's surge. Refi's so far in August are 9.0% ahead of July which rose 17.3% versus June.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage was stable at 6.05%, the average for August so far. That is down from 6.24% averaged last month and the high of 6.53% in May. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also was about stable at 5.47% versus 5.69% last month.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 08/20/04 | 08/13/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 646.3 | 689.4 | 1.2% | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
Purchase | 443.7 | 467.1 | 18.2% | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
Refinancing | 1,824.9 | 1,982.7 | -15.9% | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |