Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
- Croatia: Retail Trade (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 5, 2004
Initial unemployment insurance claims unexpectedly fell 11,000 to 336,000 after a 6,000 rise the prior week that was revised slightly up from the initial report.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless claims and the m/m change in non-farm payrolls.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose to 343,500 (-14.0% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 35,000 following a downwardly revised 157,000 worker jump the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.3%.
"Reaching the Top: Challenges and Opportunities: Women Leaders" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 7/31/04 | 7/24/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 336 | 347 | -15.8% | 403 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,911 | -19.6% | 3,533 | 3,573 | 3,023 |
