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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Backpedaled in June
by Tom Moeller July 23, 2004

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell last month to 0.00 from 0.75 in May.

The three-month moving average of the CFNAI similarly dipped to 0.41, the second lowest reading this year.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

During the last twenty years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The latest release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is available here.

A recent speech by Fed Vice-Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. titled "A Retrospective on Business-Cycle Recoveries: Are "Jobless" Recoveries the New Norm?" is available here.

Chicago Fed June May June '03 2003 2002 2001
CFNAI 0.00 0.75 -0.18 -0.10 -0.40 -1.18
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