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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 22, 2004
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell an expected 11,000 last week to 339,000. The latest figure covers the July survey period for non-farm payrolls and claims were about even with the June period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless claims and the m/m change in non-farm payrolls.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 336,750 (-18.8% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance cratered 167,000 following a downwardly revised 105,000 gain the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.2%, the lowest level since May 2001.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 7/17/04 | 7/10/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 339 | 350 | -14.0% | 403 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,797 | -21.4% | 3,533 | 3,573 | 3,023 |
