Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller July 1, 2004
Initial claims for jobless insurance were about stable last week at 351,000. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for 344,000 claims.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose to 347,000 (-17.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 13,000 following a 61,000 increase the prior week which was revised down slightly.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.4% from the prior week that was revised down.
"Wage and Employer Changes Over the Life Cycle" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 6/26/04 | 6/19/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 351 | 350 | -17.8% | 403 | 404 | 406 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,966 | -19.6% | 3,533 | 3,573 | 3,023 |
by Tom Moeller July 1, 2004
The Institute of Supply Management reported that the Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) for June fell to 61.1 from 62.8 in May. The decline about matched Consensus expectations for a decline to 61.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 71% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Each of the component series fell m/m with the exception of inventories which broached the breakeven line of 50 for the first month since January 2000. New orders fell three points to the lowest level in nearly a year. New export orders similarly fell to the lowest level since February. Employment eased just moderately, down 2.2 points to 59.7.
The separate index of prices paid fell for the second month from an April high.
ISM Manufacturing Survey | June | May | June '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 61.1 | 62.8 | 50.4 | 53.3 | 52.4 | 43.9 |
New Orders Index | 60.0 | 62.8 | 52.9 | 58.1 | 56.6 | 46.1 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 81.0 | 86.0 | 56.5 | 59.6 | 57.6 | 42.9 |
by Tom Moeller July 1, 2004
The total value of construction put in place rose 0.3% in May following a little revised 1.2% surge in April. Past figures were revised, mostly due to additional gains last year in residential construction. A 0.7% rise in May had been the Consensus expectation.
Private residential building activity rose another 0.8% following a 1.2% jump in April and a 1.1% March gain. Single family building surged 1.3% (23.7% y/y) following 1.9% and 1.6% gains the prior two months.
Nonresidential building slipped 0.4% following three months of gain. Spending on health care facilities rose 0.5% (9.9% y/y) following huge gains during the prior three months.
Public construction fell 0.2% led by a second monthly decline in the power category (+36.5% y/y). Spending on highways & streets (nearly one third of the value of public construction spending) edged up 0.1% (15.2% y/y).
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureaus reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.
Construction Put-in-place | May | April | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.3% | 1.2% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 3.2% |
Private | 0.4% | 1.2% | 10.7% | 6.0% | -0.2% | 1.4% |
Residential | 0.8% | 1.2% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 8.4% | 3.3% |
Nonresidential | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | -5.5% | -13.0% | -1.3% |
Public | -0.2% | 1.1% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 7.0% | 10.7% |