Recent Updates
- US: Philadelphia Fed State Coincidence Indexes (Apr)
- US: Advance Durable Goods (Apr)
- Maldives: Depository Corporations Survey (Apr)
- Mexico: GDP (Q1), Economic Activity (Mar), Trade (Apr)
- Bosnia: PPI (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller May 24, 2004
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in April to 0.64 from 0.23 in March. The latest was the highest reading since last November.
The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also improved to 0.45, the highest level since January.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
During the last twenty years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
The latest release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is available here.
Last week's speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben S. Bernanke on Gradualism is available here.
| Chicago Fed | April | Mar | April '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.64 | 0.23 | -1.18 | -0.10 | -0.40 | -1.18 |
