Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 19, 2004
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators reported by the Conference Board rose an expected 0.3% in March. The gain followed no change in February.
The gain reflected increases in 60% of the component series but shorter delivery lead times, as measured by stronger vendor performance, had the largest positive contribution of 0.26%. Over a six-month span 70% of the leading series rose.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.
The coincident indicators rose 0.2% and 75% of the component series were higher.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators rose 0.3% to another record level. The ratio is an indicator of excess relative to actual economic performance.
Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.3% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| Coincident | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| Lagging | -0.1% | -0.1% | -3.1% | -2.2% | -2.8% | -1.4% |
