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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller March 12, 2003
The US current account deficit narrowed to $127.5B in 4Q, the shallowest in over a year. The deficit for all of 2003 of $541.8B by far set a new record and totaled 4.9% of GDP. Consensus expectations had been for a 4Q deficit of $136.0B.
The deficit in goods trade improved to $110.4B in 4Q03 but for the year deteriorated to $473.5B.
Exports of goods, services & income in 4Q jumped 8.1% (12.4% y/y) led by a 10.2% pop in merchandise exports. Imports rose 4.0% with merchandise imports up just 4.3%, the gain held back by just a 1.0% q/q gain in petroleum prices.
The surplus on services expanded to $16.3B and for 2003 totaled $59.2B versus $64.8B in 2002. The peak services surplus was $91.1B in 1997.
US Int'l Balance of Payments | 4Q '03 | 3Q '03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Deficit | $127.5B | $135.3B | $128.6B | $541.8B | $480.9B | $393.7B |
Goods/Services/Income Deficit | $110.4B | $118.6B | $113.2B | $473.5B | $422.0B | $347.1B |
Exports | 8.1% | 3.9% | 12.4% | 5.3% | -4.3% | -9.3% |
Imports | 4.0% | 1.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 1.2% | -7.9% |
Unilateral Transfers Deficit | $17.2B | $16.7B | $15.4B | $68.3 | $58.9B | $46.6B |
by Tom Moeller March 12, 2004
Total business inventories rose just 0.1% in January versus Consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. It was the smallest increase since inventories began moving higher in September.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the three month change in business inventories and the three month change in US factory production.
Retail inventories rose 0.1% in January, held back by a slight decline in non-auto inventories, the first decline since last May. The decline centered in apparel as well as furniture & Home furnishings.
Overall business sales rose 0.4% (6.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 1.4% gain December.
The inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at a record low 1.33.
Business Inventories | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | -4.6% |
Retail | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | -2.9% |
Retail excl. Autos | -0.0% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | -1.2% |
Wholesale | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | -4.5% |
Manufacturing | 0.2% | 0.1% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
by Tom Moeller March 12, 2004
The University of Michigans consumer sentiment index slipped further in mid-March to 94.1 from 94.4 in February. Consensus expectations had been for an unchanged reading of 94.5.
During the last ten years there has been an 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE. That correlation has risen to 84% during the last five years.
Perceptions of current economic conditions improved and added to gains in late February. The index came in at 105.7 and is up 17.4% versus last year.
The expectations index deteriorated again to 86.6 and added to last month's decline. Nevertheless, the index remained up 24.4% versus last year.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.It is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | Mid-March | Feb | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 94.1 | 94.4 | 21.3% | 87.6 | 89.6 | 89.2 |
Current Conditions | 105.7 | 103.6 | 17.4% | 97.2 | 97.5 | 100.1 |
Consumer Expectations | 86.6 | 88.5 | 24.4% | 81.4 | 84.6 | 82.3 |