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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone March 3, 2004
Just last week in this space [February 26], we noted that sentiment measures in two European countries are moving in contrary patterns. Business confidence has been improving in the Czech Republic and Slovakia while consumer confidence is eroding. We attributed that dichotomy to employment and unemployment trends.
Now, today, NTC-Research in London, compiler of Purchasing Manager surveys published by Reuters, reports that overall economic performance in the Euro-zone, i.e., in the manufacturing, services and construction sectors combined, maintained a firm growth path in the mid-50% range in February. However, employment continues to erode, easing for a second month to a reading just above 48%.
At the same time, data in the table below show that this employment weakness is not uniform across Europe. Germany has the worst situation, with jobs falling at many companies. Recent improvements in France and Italy, which had yielded net gains through January in the number of firms hiring more workers, paused in the February tally. Spain, by contrast, is keeping up quite widespread job growth. And a modest up trend is holding in the UK. The job contractions in Europe thus appear to be generated by labor market conditions specific to Germany, while other nations are mostly seeing more job opportunities. Moreover, even Germany is sharing in the expansion of business activity, with a quite respectable reading of 54.1 in its service sector for February. Accordingly, it looks that technology and external demand are fueling output growth throughout Europe, even as German labor markets are functioning less than optimally.
Selected Purchasing Managers Diffusion Indexes | Feb 04 | Jan 04 | Dec 03 | Feb 03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Euro-zone Total Economy Output | 55.4 | 56.2 | 55.8 | 50.0 | 51.2 | 51.6 | 50.5 |
Euro-zone Total Economy Employment | 48.2 | 48.6 | 49.1 | 46.4 | 46.9 | 48.4 | 51.0 |
Service Sector Employment in Various Countries: Euro-Zone Total | 48.2 | 48.7 | 49.6 | 45.9 | 46.9 | 49.4 | 52.5 |
Germany | 45.3 | 45.1 | 46.4 | 40.4 | 42.5 | 46.5 | 49.6 |
France | 49.6 | 51.1 | 50.3 | 50.3 | 49.6 | 52.0 | 56.0 |
Italy | 49.7 | 51.2 | 53.4 | 50.4 | 50.6 | 50.8 | 53.1 |
Spain | 54.1 | 53.4 | 54.7 | 49.0 | 51.2 | 51.7 | 53.6 |
UK | 52.1 | 51.7 | 51.9 | 47.7 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 50.8 |