Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone February 19, 2004
On Tuesday, the US Treasury published its December "TIC" data, the compilation of securities transactions between foreign investors and US residents. ["TIC" is an acronym for Treasury International Capital.] The data are contained in Haver's USINT database in the section "US International Investment Tables", shown by security type and country. Net foreign purchases of all kinds of securities were $75.7 billion in December and totaled $707.9 billion for 2003. This total is $133.3 billion larger than the previous record, $574.6 billion, set just in 2002.
In the aggregate, this substantial foreign participation in US securities markets clearly illustrates that those investors were not driven away by concerns over 9/11 or other terrorist threats; there was a brief dip in September 2001, but net purchases bounced back immediately. Nor have highly publicized scandals involving US companies and financial markets since mid-2002 discouraged foreign capital inflows.
One aspect that has undergone change is the mix of securities types. Initially, as seen in the graph, total foreign purchases seemed nearly synonymous with those of Treasury securities. However, since late 1996, the trends in the totals and in Treasuries have diverged. Foreigners diversified their portfolios, as they increased their acquisition of federal agency securities, corporate bonds and stocks. Interest in this last item turned down in 2000, with the general pullback in equity values. But purchases of corporate bonds have remained sizable, as indicated in the table below, implying a sustained appeal of corporate securities even through swings in exchange rates, interest rates and asset values.
Net Foreign Purchases of Securities in US Markets (bil $) | Dec 2003 | Nov 2003 | Oct 2003 | Dec 2002 | Monthly Average
---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
Total | 75.7 | 87.5 | 27.8 | 38.0 | 59.0 | 47.9 | 41.8 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Treasuries | 29.8 | 33.4 | 12.0 | 13.5 | 22.8 | 10.0 | 1.5 | |
Federal Agencies (mostly "GSEs") | 17.3 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 16.3 | 13.7 | |
US Corporate Bonds | 20.4 | 29.6 | 20.9 | 13.2 | 22.6 | 15.2 | 18.5 | |
US Corporate Stocks | 13.3 | 8.8 | -1.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 9.7 | |
Foreign Bonds | 0.0 | -3.7 | -5.1 | -5.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | |
Foreign Stocks | -5.0 | 8.8 | -8.2 | -2.6 | -5.2 | -0.1 | -4.2 |