Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Mexico: Construction (Mar), SemiMonthly CPI (May)
- Brazil: IPCA-15 (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 5, 2004
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose last week by 17,000 to 356,000. The prior week's level was revised down. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 342,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims was unchanged at 345,250 (-10.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged w/w and the prior week's level was revised down to a smaller increase of 4,000 versus the initial report.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.5% for the fourth consecutive week.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/31/04 | 01/24/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 356.0 | 339.0 | -10.6% | 403 | 404 | 406 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 3,123 | -9.1% | 3,535 | 3,575 | 3,022 |
by Tom Moeller February 5, 2004
Non-farm labor productivity grew 2.7% last quarter. That was a sharp slowdown from the 9.5% growth in 3Q but came despite a surge in hours and a slowdown in output. Consensus expectations had been for 2.7% growth.
Hours worked by all persons (employment times hours) rose 1.5% (-0.2% y/y), the strongest gain since early 2000. Output growth slowed considerably to 4.2% (5.2% y/y) from 10.4% in 3Q.
On an annual basis, the five-year growth in productivity rose to 3.3% through 2003, the fastest since the mid-1960s. Combined with 1.3% growth in the labor force over that period it suggests potential growth for the economy of 4.6%.
Unit labor costs fell 1.3% and for the year fell 1.2%. The back-to-back annual declines in costs were a record.
Manufacturing sector productivity growth rose 4.8% (5.2% y/y). Unit labor costs in the factory sector fell 3.1% (-0.9%).
"Is There a Digital Divide" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco discusses who uses computers in this report.
Non-farm Business Sector (SAAR) | 4Q '03 | 3Q '03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Output per Hour | 2.7% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
Compensation | 1.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% |
Unit Labor Costs | -1.3% | -5.6% | -2.0% | -1.2% | -2.5% | 1.7% |