Global| Jan 30 2009EU Index At Record Low
Summary
The EU sentiment index has fallen to a record low. Most of its sector readings are on lows as well. Construction, in the lower 13% of its range, is the strongest sector in relative terms. The sentiment indices for the major EMU [...]
The EU sentiment index has fallen to a record low. Most of its sector readings are on lows as well. Construction, in the lower 13% of its range, is the strongest sector in relative terms. The sentiment indices for the major EMU nations and for the UK are on lows as well – at the very bottom of their ranges. France is the relative strongest in only the bottom 5% of its range. Europe is obviously getting clobbered and the weakness runs across sectors and countries. The EMU overall sentiment reading fell to 64.9 in Jan from 68.2 in December – a very sharp fall at a reading level that is already so low. That is not a good sign. The pace of the drop in sentiment is not slowing down.
| EU Sectors and Country level Overall Sentiment | R-SQ | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | w/ Overall |
| Overall | 64.9 | 68.2 | 75.1 | 81.1 | 0.0 | 220 | 116 | 65 | 51 | 100 | 1.00 |
| Industrial | -34 | -32 | -25 | -19 | 0.0 | 220 | 7 | -34 | 41 | -8 | 0.85 |
| Consumer Confid | -31 | -28 | -24 | -23 | 0.0 | 220 | 2 | -31 | 33 | -11 | 0.87 |
| Retail | -25 | -25 | -18 | -16 | 0.0 | 219 | 6 | -25 | 31 | -6 | 0.61 |
| Construction | -36 | -32 | -28 | -25 | 13.3 | 203 | 3 | -42 | 45 | -17 | 0.48 |
| Services | -28 | -23 | -18 | -10 | 0.0 | 145 | 33 | -28 | 61 | 15 | 0.82 |
| %m/m | Jan 09 |
Based on Level | Level | ||||||||
| EMU | -2.1% | -10.2% | -5.7% | 68.9 | 0.0 | 220 | 118 | 69 | 49 | 99 | 0.96 |
| Germany | -4.0% | -6.4% | -7.0% | 74.4 | 0.0 | 220 | 121 | 74 | 46 | 99 | 0.61 |
| France | -1.2% | -10.6% | -1.8% | 74.4 | 5.2 | 219 | 119 | 72 | 47 | 100 | 0.81 |
| Italy | -1.4% | -11.7% | -1.4% | 71.9 | 0.0 | 220 | 121 | 72 | 50 | 100 | 0.79 |
| Spain | 3.7% | -7.2% | -3.4% | 69.2 | 5.0 | 219 | 117 | 67 | 50 | 100 | 0.69 |
| Memo:UK | -10.9% | -0.6% | -9.9% | 60.2 | 0.0 | 220 | 117 | 60 | 57 | 100 | 0.50 |
| Since 1990 except Services (Oct 1996)247 | -Count | Services: | 145 | -Count | |||||||
| Sentiment is an index, sector readings are net balance diffusion measures | |||||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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