Global| Jan 29 2016Chicago Business Barometer Posts Sharp Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers report indicated that its General Business Barometer surged to 55.6 in January from 42.9 in December, and more than made up the declines during the prior two months. The index level was the highest in [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers report indicated that its General Business Barometer surged to 55.6 in January from 42.9 in December, and more than made up the declines during the prior two months. The index level was the highest in twelve months. During the last ten years, there has been a 65% correlation between the index level and quarterly growth in real GDP. The ISM-Adjusted index increased to 52.4, a three-month high.
Most component increases were strong, led by the production series which rose to 62.5, the highest level in eleven months. New orders also surged to 58.8 and order backlogs jumped to 47.2. Also to the upside was employment which recovered most of December's decline. During the last ten years, there has been an 82% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Falling sharply was the inventory and supplier delivery indexes.
The prices paid component eased to 43.7. Not seasonally adjusted, seven percent of respondents reported higher prices while 19% reported them lower.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing managers in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 52.4 | 46.8 | 48.7 | 55.3 | 51.6 | 59.3 | 54.2 |
| General Business Barometer | 55.6 | 42.9 | 47.7 | 59.0 | 50.3 | 60.7 | 56.0 |
| Production | 62.5 | 46.6 | 50.5 | 63.7 | 52.5 | 64.5 | 58.2 |
| New Orders | 58.8 | 38.6 | 44.5 | 61.8 | 50.4 | 63.8 | 59.1 |
| Order Backlogs | 47.2 | 29.4 | 46.3 | 50.6 | 44.4 | 54.2 | 48.8 |
| Inventories | 42.7 | 48.9 | 47.2 | 39.9 | 52.1 | 55.9 | 45.6 |
| Employment | 48.9 | 46.4 | 49.8 | 56.3 | 50.3 | 56.0 | 55.6 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.2 | 53.7 | 51.6 | 54.8 | 52.5 | 56.5 | 52.5 |
| Prices Paid | 43.7 | 45.6 | 42.2 | 44.0 | 46.8 | 61.0 | 59.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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