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Economy in Brief
·U.S. Monthly Budget Deficit A Record
·UK Industrial Production Losses Momentum – So What?
· U.S. Small Business Optimism Slips
· JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Highest Since February '09
· Business Confidence In Australia Rises
· French Deficit Shrinks
· U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Highest Since 2008
· U.S. Consumer Credit Records First Increase in Year
· Economy Watchers In Japan Find Improvement In....
· German IP Advances
· U.S. Unemployment Rate Steadies; Payrolls Fall Modestly
· Has Germany Found The Missing Link?
· U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply
· U.S. Factory Inventories Turn Toward Accumulation
· EMU GDP Stays Put – No Revision
· U.S. Initial Claims For Insurance Fall Back
· U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Hits Highest Since 2007
· Challenger Indicates Smaller Decline in Jobs
· ADP Report: Job Cuts Abate Despite Severe Weather
· EMU Retail Sales And Car Registrations Show Some Gains
· U.S. Vehicle Sales Suffer From Harsh Weather & Toyota Recall
· U.S. Petroleum Prices Move Higher
· More Favorable Data From Japan
· Progress- No Happily Ever After Euro-Area Inflation In February...
· U.S. Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip
· U.S. Personal Income Remains Weak
· Canada's Q4 GDP Rise Due Mainly To Foreign Trade
· Unemployment Rate Steadies In The Euro-Area...
· U.S. Construction Activity Falls To Lowest Since 2003
· ISM Manufacturing Index Fell From January High
· U.S. GDP 4Q Increase Made Stronger By Inventories
· EMU Inflation Stays Under Wraps
· U.S. Existing Home Sales Plummet As Prices Fall Sharply
· Michigan Consumer Sentiment Revised Little...
· U.S. Durable Goods Orders Surge Due To Aircraft
· A Pause And Backtrack In EU/EMU Growth In February
· U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Jump With Poor Weather
· U.S. New Home Sales Plumb Record Low, Weather or Not?
· Orders Continue In Their Upswing
· U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications Slip Again
· Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Modest Recovery
· U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply
· Confidence Among German Industrialists Slips A Bit In February
· U.S. Weekly Chain Store Sales Look Lifeless
· More...
Commentary

Manpower Survey Indicates Positive But Limited Jobs Growth

· The employment agency Manpower Inc. indicated roughly stable corporate hiring intentions for the second quarter. Their seasonally adjusted reading of 5 compared to a 1Q figure of 6, but both were improved from the net-layoff readings late during 2009. Those recession readings were the worst of the series' history which dates to 1976. Since 1990 there has been a 77% correlation between the Manpower Index and the three-month change in payroll employment.

· Hiring intentions for 2Q improved in the relatively stable education & health, government, information, nondurable manufacturing and professional business service sectors, but sustained improvement in each versus last year was scattered. Intentions in the construction and durable manufacturing sectors continued to indicate net-layoffs though the layoffs in the latter sector diminished considerably.

· The Manpower Inc Employment Outlook Survey is a quarterly measurement of hiring intentions of more than 15,000 employers in 473 cities. Employers declare their intentions to increase, decrease, or maintain the size of their present workforce for the upcoming three-month period. The survey was designed with the assistance of the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan. The current seasonal adjustments are by Manpower, Inc. Haver calculated the historical seasonally adjusted series.

· The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. Manpower indicates that seasonally-adjusted industry data are under development.

·  Assessing the Impact of Education and Marriage on Labor Market Exit Decisions of Women from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available  here.

By Tom Moeller

Manpower Inc. Employment Outlook Survey 2Q '10 1Q '10 4Q '09 3Q '09 2009 2008 2007
All Industries Net Hiring Strength (SA) 5 6 -2 -2 1 13 18
     Increase (NSA) 16  12  12  15 15  24  27
     Decrease (NSA) 8 12 14 13 14 11 9
  Construction -12 -10 2 -4 -5 -- --
  Education & Health 4 2 -4 0 1 -- --
  Financial Activities 2 1 2 2 3 -- --
  Government -3 -8 -4 -2 -1 -- --
  Information 0 -5 -4 -5 -3 -- --
  Leisure & Hospitality 4 2 18 14 13 -- --
  Manufacturing - Durable -3 -8 -6 -7 -5 -- --
  Manufacturing - Nondurable 1 -3 0 -4 -2 -- --
  Professional Business Services 5 3 8 9 9 -- --