· The
Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the rate of job loss continued
to moderate last month, just not by as much as had been anticipated. Nonfarm
payrolls fell 467,000 during June after a 322,000 worker decline,
revised from -345,000, during May. The June drop was deeper than the
market's expectations for a 350,000 shortfall. During this recession so
far employment has fallen by a total of 6.5 million, the record for an
18-month period. In percentage terms jobs are down 4.7% since the 2007
peak, also an 18-month record. The moderation is apparent in the 436,000
average monthly decline during the last three versus a peak three-month
rate of 701,000 this past Winter.
· The latest data from the payroll
survey give insight into real GDP growth last quarter. Combined with the
lessened decline in employment is a shorter length of the average
workweek. Together, this measure of aggregate hours worked fell at a
7.9% annual rate versus an 8.9% 1Q drop. That drop was associated with
negative 5.5% real GDP growth. Therefore the 2Q GDP rate of decline
likely eased, perhaps sharply depending on productivity growth. During
the last twenty years, there has been a 68% correlation between growth
in hours worked and in real GDP.
· Another indication of
moderation in the economy's rate of decline was that the unemployment
rate only ticked up slightly. The rise to 9.5% from 9.4% in May was,
however, to the highest level since August of 1983. The rate's cycle low
of 4.4% occurred in October 2006. Last month employment fell hard again,
though here again the rate of decline eased. The 374,000 drop
(-3.8% y/y) compared to a peak 1.2 million monthly decline this past
January. The labor force fell 155,000 (0.3% y/y). Though the rate of job
loss slowed, it also is increasingly difficult for the unemployed to
find work. The average duration of unemployment rose during June to a
new record of 24.5 weeks from an average of 17.8 weeks during 2008.
· Also from the household
survey was the continued indication that 5.9 million discouraged workers
want a job now but are not in the labor force. That figure is up 19.5%
from last June and near the highest since 1995. Finally, the labor force
participation rate, i.e., the number of eligible workers who are in the
labor force stands at 65.7%, down from the 2000 high of 67.1%.
· Back in the
establishment survey, the easing in the rate of job loss last month
continued evident in slower declines in construction and in services
jobs. The construction sector lost 79,000 workers last month after a
48,000 May decline. Monthly drops in excess of 100,000 were common
during the prior six. Private service sector job loss also moderated,
but just slightly. They fell 192,000 last month after a 97,000 decline
May drop. These compare to declines between 196,000 and 399,000 since
last September. Losses eased sharply in the retail trade area, in the
financial sector and in leisure & hospitality industries. The rate
of job loss in the factory sector also eased, but just barely. Factory
sector jobs fell 136,000 last month and by an average 147,000 during the
last three. That compares with a 205,000 rate of job loss this Winter.
· In the government
sector there were 52,000 jobs lost last month and they're up just 4,000
this year. That's after the 162,000 worker increase during 2008. Jobs
with the Federal government fell by 49,000 (+1.5% y/y) for the second
consecutive monthly decline. The number of state gov't jobs fell 4,000
(+0.3% y/y) but local gov't jobs inched up 1,000. Nevertheless, local
gov't jobs are down by 0.2% y/y, the first material decline since 1983.
Should the federal government bail out
the states? Lessons from past recessions from the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago can be found here.
· Not only is the labor
market weak in the major categories, but the full breadth of decline
shows even greater distress. Overall, only 28.6% of industries posted
job gains last month, up from the March low of 19.6%. However, over the
last six months just 18.1% of firms posted job growth, up little from
the record low since 1990. In the factory sector 13.9% of firms posted
job gains and only 6.0% did over the last six months. Both these figures
were up from the lows, but just slightly.
· Workers' earning power
continued to suffer last month from all the hiring distress. Average
hourly earnings were unchanged in June for the second month in the last
three. That weakness pulled the three-month rate of growth to a record
low of just 0.7% (AR). Earnings in the factory sector slipped for the
second month and the three-month growth rate dropped to -0.2%. That's
versus a late-2008 growth rate of 5.0%. Growth in the durable sector's
earnings (NSA) has turned negative over the last three months as have
earnings in the private service sector.
· The figures referenced
above are available in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail
can be found in the LABOR and in the EMPL databases.
By Tom
Moeller
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