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Economy in Brief

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Narrows in October
by Tom Moeller  November 11, 2022

• Revenues increase sharply y/y.

• Spending collapses versus FY'22.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $87.8 billion during October following a deficit of $429.7 billion in September. It was the smallest deficit since May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $90.0 billion deficit for October.

Overall revenues improved 12.2% y/y last month following their 21.0% y/y rise during all of last fiscal year. Individual income tax receipts rose 21.8% y/y after the 28.8% y/y rise in FY'22, lifted by higher employment. Corporate tax payments declined 6.9% y/y following a surge last year with strength in business earnings. Social insurance taxes rose 8.5% y/y after a 12.9% increase in FY'22 and excise taxes grew 4.0% y/y after rising 16.5% last fiscal year.

Federal government outlays declined 9.5% y/y in October after falling 8.1% y/y in FY'22. Income security payments fell 39.1% y/y after the level halved in FY'22 with the absence of economic stimulus checks. National defense outlays grew 11.3% y/y after a 1.6% y/y rise in FY'22. Outlays on health programs rose 1.3% y/y after a 14.8% gain in FY'22. Social Security outlays increased 8.4% y/y in October following a 7.4% rise last fiscal year, Medicare outlays fell by two-thirds y/y after 8.4% y/y growth in FY'22. Interest payments surged 43.8% y/y in October following a 34.9% y/y gain during the last fiscal year.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

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