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Economy in Brief

ADP Employment Gain Is Moderate in September
by Tom Moeller  October 5, 2022

• Recent months' gains weaken versus early-2022.

• Hiring at medium-sized company leads softening.

• Pay gains remain firm.

Job growth remains on a slower, but steady path. Nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 208,000 (3.6% y/y) during September following a 185,000 August rise, revised from 132,000 reported last month. Growth during the last two months together averaged 196,000, the weakest gain since February 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 200,000 September rise.

Small businesses (1-49 employees) added 58,000 job (1.8% y/y) following a 28,000 August increase. The 43,000-average gain during the last two months compared to 117,000 as of June. Employment at firms with (50-499 employees) rose 90,000 (4.3% y/y) after an 81,000 August gain. Averaging just 86,000 over the last two months, growth was down from 312,000 as of April. Employment at large firms (500+ employees) rose 60,000 (9.6% y/y) last month after a 76,000 August rise. Recent gains followed a 2,000 decline as of June.

By industry group, goods-producing employment declined 29,000 (+2.4% y/y) after falling 15,000 in August. Factory sector jobs declined 13,000 (+1.8% y/y) after increasing 2,000 in August while construction employment held steady (+3.7% y/y) following an 8,000 decline.

Service-producing jobs rose 237,000 following a 200,000 increase. Annual growth of 3.8% compares to a 4.9% high as of April. Trade, transportation & utilities payrolls rose 147,000 (2.8% y/y) while professional & business services employment improved 57,000 (4.9% y/y). Education & health care employment rose 38,000 (0.9% y/y) and leisure & hospitality job increased 31,000 (9.4% y/y). To the downside, information jobs fell 19,000 (+3.3% y/y), off for the second straight month while the number of financial activities jobs were off 16,000 (-0.3% y/y), down for the third straight month.

By Census region, employment in the South again posted the largest gain of the four major regions, up 89,000 (3.9% y/y) after rising 95,000 in August. Jobs in the West repeated their August gain and rose 55,000 (4.3% y/y). Employment in the Northeast rose 39,000 in September (3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 gain in August. A 25,000 increase (2.4% y/y) in employment in the Midwest repeated the August gain.

Median annual pay is reported monthly with breakdowns by worker type, gender, age, industry and firm size. The annual rate of increase in pay for "job stayers" was an improved 7.8% y/y in September. That remained up from 1.6% in March of last year. By gender, female median pay rose 8.1% y/y compared to 7.6% for men. Pay gains have been fastest in the 16-24 year ago group (15.3% y/y) followed by 11.3% in the 25-34 bracket. Earnings in the 35-54 age group rose 7.6% y/y and 5.2% in the 55-85 age bracket.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

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