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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Winnie Tapasanun August 5, 2022
• Largest consumer credit growth in three months.
• Revolving credit usage strengthens.
• Record increase in nonrevolving credit balances.
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June, the largest monthly advance in three months, after a $23.8 billion May increase (revised from $22.3 billion). A $25.0 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income edged higher to 24.9% in June, the highest level since March 2020, from 24.8% in May.
Revolving consumer credit balances rose $14.8 billion (13.8% y/y) in June following a $7.2 billion May increase (revised from $7.4 billion). Revolving credit provided by depository institutions (90.9% of the total and mostly credit card debt) rose 15.5% y/y, the quickest growth since January 1997, up from May's 15.2% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6.2% of the total) increased 12.0% y/y, up from May's 11.1% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (1.7% of the total) were unchanged in June from a year ago. The value of finance company loans (1.1% of loans) fell 21.0% y/y in June, the deepest year-over-year fall since December 2021.
Nonrevolving consumer credit balances surged a record $25.3 billion (5.8% y/y) in June following a $16.6 billion May rise (revised from $14.9 billion). Federal government lending, which issued 41.7% of nonrevolving credit, rose 3.2% y/y, the same rate as in May. Nonrevolving loans provided by depository institutions (26.4% of credit) grew 9.2% y/y, easing slightly from May's 9.5% y/y. Finance company lending (16.2% of loans) rose 2.0% y/y, up from May's 1.6% y/y. Growth of credit union nonrevolving loans (14.7% of the total) accelerated to 13.5% y/y in June, the fastest pace since July 2017, from 11.3% y/y in May.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.